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Key MH17 - BUK could not see Boeing

BUK could not shot down Boeing Mh17
We found out, why.


In Russian

The distance between the alleged Ukrainian security services place a missile launch and the point of contact with Boeing - more maximum range BUK (SA11) complex lesions. The height at which flew Boeing, was not available for review radar BUK.

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When BUK shotdown Boeing? 13.18 UTC - 13.19.56 UTC

We know the coordinates of the last signal transponder aircraft - in 13.18 UTC (16.18 in Kyiv) Boeing flew over Gorlovka position N48.28 E38.08 (source HERE ) in two minutes Boeing disappeared from radar.

Avherald - the most accurate resource for all aviation accident rates in the world. He points to 13.18 last position - this time span Gorlovki - Yenakievo.

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There are also indications Flightradar and decoding of flight recorders on Dutch Safety Board report, which are the mark of the last response crew 13.19.56 (time-of-flight Yenakievo- Krasny Kluch, the nearest place Novoorlovka). 48.1767 38.3866 - it geodata site Flightradar, fixed in 13.19.16 UTC - 40 seconds after that, the crew according to the voice recorder stopped responding - it was near the villages Perropavlovka, Novoorlovka and Krasny Kluch.

PHOTO FROM TOREZ

Place an alleged missile launch complex BUK was established on the picture of the SBU, the entire image is published recently in the Netherlands (sourse HERE). According to the SBU, the launch was made on July 17 in the area of Thorez.

British journalists from the Daily Telegraph found the place where it was burned land – around Pervomayskij, in the field.


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Coordinates were later established Ukrainian bloggers. 47.973970, 38.764119

We are aware of the details of the SBU and the testimony of the photographer that the survey was conducted in a minute after the attack on the plane from one of the balconies of houses located on the outskirts of Thorez, in the third district.


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Shooting direction - Telman Street, next to mine Lutugino, just left of mining dump (there are pictured on the right corner).
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Would get if the BUK to Boeing?


Calculate the distance between Boeing and beech at the time of the defeat of the rocket. If you put the coordinates of the aircraft from the last position of the transponder 13.18 UTC and coordinates installation BUK on the First at the map, we get the missile range - 61 km.
Assuming that Boeing was struck by a missile in 13.19.56 UTC, after answering crew dispatcher between the aircraft and the Pervomayskij was already 25 km.
Boeing flies in minute 15 kilometers, per second - 250 m. The speed missile 800-850 m / s during the active phase of flight, she flew 25 km to the aircraft for more than 30 seconds. (Hours rocket engine may be, depending on the it kind of from 15 to 20). In the characteristics of a missile system indicated that the reaction of BUK from the moment of capture target before the shot - another 22 seconds. Total 52.
During the time after pressing militias "Start" button and the missile to the target aircraft flew 13.7 km. That is, when the calculation of beech launched a rocket, Boeing was from him in 39 km.
CONCLUSION: The set us away from Boeing before May horizontally at the time of the missile and the defeat of beech - from 39 to 60 km. A maximum range missiles BUK-M1 - 32 km.

And even if Boeing is even closer to the time of the missile strike - 13.20.03 UTC, the probability of hitting the target at an altitude of 10 km and removal of more than 20 km - only 30-40%.

In complexes BUK-M1 missiles are typically used 9M38M1 (hitting the target range of 32 km), although in theory can be used new missiles 9M317 (target range of 45 km), but it is known that Ukrainian BUK used missiles 1983 release. (source)
Finally, while the rocket engine - 20. This is enough for the active flight up to 17 km, then the rocket moves by inertia.

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Another characteristic of the complex ranging BUK M1. The index range target detection for course MH17 setting is only 22 kilometers.
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Безымянный

(source HERE )

UPD corrected that the exchange rate had no option in this case is crucial because it determines the projection rather than the horizontal range of the target. And at the rate of BUK and Boeing were almost identical.

BUK not seen BOEING

If we start from the rules of a right triangle, then at the height of the aircraft (leg) 10 km and a maximum range of lesions (hypotenuse) 45 km, the angle is 12 degrees, and the ground range to the BUK - 43 km.

However, the radar installation 9А310М1 operating in standalone mode, could not detect aircraft at such parameters.
According to the characteristics of the radar 9S35, mounted on self-propelled units, the detection range at an altitude of 3000m up to 70km, but the radar field of view in elevation of all 6..7 degrees (at the station Tube Arm - 40 degrees).

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The coordinate system radar: a-azimuth; B is the angle space; R-slant range

Apply the formula of a right triangle. Calculate the altitude was supposed to fly Boeing to radar could detect it at a distance of 45 km. Leg is the hypotenuse multiplied by the sine of the opposite angle. 45 km leg angle 7. At this boundary hitting the target aircraft had to fly at a height of not more than 4.5 km, to be visible to radar. Even on the far border 70 km radar sees only at an altitude of 7 km. However, Boeing was flying at an altitude of 10 km.

To be detected at an altitude of 10 km, with an elevation angle of 6.7 degrees, the distance Boeing to install BUK was as high as 80 km, which goes beyond the radar - ten km longer possible.

P.S. The official report by the Dutch Safety Board indicated another point position Boeing - last FDR 13.20.03 UTC - in the area of Petropavlovka.

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However, FDR - is the end of the flight, not the beginning of the development of on-board emergency. We know, for example, that in 2001, after being hit by a rocket S-200 in the Tu-154 plane over the Black Sea, flight recorders recorded negotiations between the pilots: "anywhere? ", And it is known that at a height of 6 Km of the pilot of another aircraft have been falling Tu-154 in three minutes after being hit by a rocket.

Breakage parametric recorder records in 13.20.03 UTC, which fixes the operation of the main components and assemblies does not mean instant destruction Boeing. After the rocket hit it continued flight, the destruction of structures began only at a height of 2 thousand m.

And only 25 minutes after the break, in 13.45 UTC - Boeing load warning light, which indicates the crash site. The last point is fixed later flight than the occurrence of an emergency on board, there is no contradiction.

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